With the Nov. 3 election approaching, new research from Rice University’s Kinder Institute for Urban Research offers insight into a fundamental question: What gets eligible voters to cast a ballot?
Researchers found that seeing oneself as a frequent and reliable voter was the strongest predictor of reported voting in Harris County’s 2024 general election. Making a firm commitment to vote was the second strongest, pointing to a potential short-term approach for encouraging participation.
Key findings include:
- Eligible voters with a strong voter identity had an 87% predicted likelihood of voting, compared with 58% among those with a weak voter identity.
- Those who said they were certain to vote had an 81% predicted likelihood of voting, compared with 64% among those who did not express certainty.
- Researchers estimate that efforts encouraging eligible Harris County voters to express a firm intention to vote could potentially result in an additional 137,000 ballots being cast.
“Building and nurturing a person’s voter identity takes time — years,” said Dylan Simburger, research analyst at the Kinder Institute and lead researcher on the study. “But checking in with someone about their intention to vote is something we can all do and can help get more people to the polls, which in turn helps build that identity.”
The findings come as Texans prepare to cast ballots in federal, statewide and local races this fall. Early voting in Harris County begins Oct. 19, followed by Election Day Nov. 3.
The estimate of 137,000 potential additional ballots is based on applying the study’s findings to Harris County’s approximately 2.8 million eligible voters in 2024. It does not suggest those voters would support the same candidates or determine the outcome of a particular race. Instead, it illustrates the potential size of the group that could move from unlikely to likely voters.
Several Harris County races in 2024 were decided by fewer than 40,000 votes.
Researchers analyzed responses from 4,158 Harris County voters who reported being eligible to vote and participated in three waves of the Greater Houston Community Panel. The surveys measured previous voting behavior, voter identity, voting intention, political attitudes and reported turnout. The analysis also accounted for party affiliation and demographic characteristics.
Among panel respondents, 72% reported voting in the 2024 election, compared with Harris County’s official turnout rate of about 59%. The researchers noted that voters may be more likely to participate in surveys and that some respondents may overreport voting.
To schedule an interview, contact media relations specialist Kat Cosley Trigg at kat.cosley.trigg@rice.edu.