A new piece published in Science by Rice University’s Menachem Elimelech raises urgent concerns about the vulnerability of desalination infrastructure across the Middle East, warning that geopolitical instability and environmental threats could quickly disrupt water supplies for millions.
Elimelech, the Nancy and Clint Carlson Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, argues that while desalination has enabled rapid urban growth in some of the world’s most water-scarce regions, it has also created a critical point of failure.
“Desalination has been transformative for the Middle East, making large-scale urbanization possible in extremely arid environments,” Elimelech said. “But the way these systems are currently designed concentrates risk in ways that are increasingly difficult to ignore.”
Recent attacks on desalination infrastructure in Iran and Bahrain underscore the issue. Elimelech explains that across the Persian Gulf and Israel, desalination provides the majority of municipal drinking water — nearly all in Kuwait and Qatar, more than 90% in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, about 70% in Saudi Arabia and up to 80% in Israel. Yet many of these countries maintain only limited freshwater reserves, often enough to last just days or weeks in the event of disruption. That level of dependence, Elimelech argues, means even short-term interruptions can escalate into humanitarian and economic crises.
“If even one major desalination facility in the Gulf were disabled, millions could lose access to drinking water within days,” Elimelech said. “Hospitals would struggle to operate. Sanitation systems would falter. In a region defined by extreme heat and aridity, the loss of water would bring cities rapidly toward ‘Day Zero’ — the point at which taps run dry. It is a crisis measured in hours.”
A key concern is the reliance on large, centralized desalination plants, many of which are co-located with power generation facilities. Elimelech explains that governments invested in large, desalination megaplants to exploit economies of scale, but this large scale creates vulnerabilities: Damage to a single facility or fuel supply can simultaneously halt both electricity and water production.
“Centralized systems are efficient under normal conditions, but they are inherently fragile,” Elimelech said. “If one major plant goes offline, the consequences ripple across entire populations.”
Environmental risks compound the problem. Oil spills in the Persian Gulf, for example, could contaminate seawater intakes and force widespread shutdowns of desalination plants.
To address these challenges, Elimelech calls for a fundamental shift in how water systems are designed and managed.
“If we build smaller distributed reverse osmosis systems using renewable energy, we can offset the increased cost and provide redundancy,” he said. “Even if one facility fails, others could continue operating.”
Elimelech emphasizes the importance of expanding alternative water sources, including advanced wastewater reuse and managed aquifer recharge, which stores excess water underground for future use.
Finally, Elimelech highlights the role of regional cooperation, suggesting that interconnected water networks could allow neighboring countries to share resources during emergencies.
“Water security is not just a national issue, it’s a regional one,” he said. “Cooperation, even in complex political environments, could provide critical backup when systems are under stress.”
A global leader in water treatment and desalination research, Elimelech focuses on the water-energy nexus, including membrane-based processes for desalination and wastewater reuse, advanced materials for environmental separation and nanotechnology-enabled water treatment solutions.
“The Middle East has invested decades in building the technologies that make life possible in one of the driest regions on Earth,” Elimelech said. “Those investments have been incredibly successful, but they’ve also created new vulnerabilities. Ensuring a secure, resilient water supply is not just an engineering challenge — it’s essential to sustaining daily life.”