Amid Russia's war on Ukraine, Rice University experts are available to discuss how alternative energy sources could ease the United States' dependence on foreign oil.
President Biden’s executive order banning oil imports from Russia cut off just one of a number of foreign energy sources for the U.S. According to a recent report from the Center for Energy Studies at Rice's Baker Institute for Public Policy, gross U.S. oil imports in 2021 stood at 8.5 million barrels a day (as did gross exports of oil and refined products). Russia was the third-ranking source of imported oil, accounting for about 8% of gross imports, or nearly 700,000 barrels a day.
Dominic Boyer, a professor of anthropology at Rice and a University of Southern California Berggruen Institute fellow for 2021-22, is principal investigator of a new National Science Foundation-funded project about electric futures. He’s noticed that anytime oil rises above $100 per barrel, news and social media begin to discuss the viability of alternative fuel sources.
"People begin to express electric vehicle envy when they see gas prices shooting through the roof. But, historically, electric vehicles have been expensive as compared with internal combustion engine vehicles and so they’ve been largely confined to luxury consumers," he says. "Back in 2014, the last time oil prices were this high, one of the more popular electric vehicles on the market, the Tesla Model S, had a (retail price) of $71,000."
While there are still expensive options, Boyer notes electric vehicles have since gone more mainstream and sticker prices have dropped dramatically.
"A number of forecasts suggest that U.S. automobile market will become predominantly electric by the mid-2030s,” he says. "So we’re getting closer to the tipping point in electrifying transportation than most people realize. And the movement is being accelerated by policy measures like fuel economy targets and even internal combustion engine phaseouts in countries ranging from Iceland to Singapore.”
Boyer says the shift is happening even faster in countries with the most ambitious future bans on internal combustion engines.
"Norway set a ban on new internal combustion engine sales starting in 2025 and also a generous tax-incentive scheme for electric vehicles purchases," he says. "Combined, 65% of new car sales in Norway were already electric vehicles in 2021. These are the kinds of policies we need to see more of in the United States to catch up to the electric vehicle revolution being led in Europe and Asia."
Boyer says California is leading the way following Gov. Gavin Newsom's executive order establishing a goal of 100% zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035.
Although Texas is known as an oil and gas state, Boyer says the energy portfolio here has diversified significantly.
"It is currently the largest wind power producing state in the country, with over 30 gigawatts of installed capacity, and its solar generation capacity is rapidly increasing, more than quadrupling in the past five years to over 8 gigawatts of installed capacity," he says. "Together wind and solar supplied 28% of energy in the (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) grid in 2021. With its abundant space and renewable energy resources, Texas is better positioned than most states to move toward a low-carbon electric future. And there is every reason to believe that future is coming, perhaps faster than many realize. Over 95% of new generation projects in the ERCOT interconnection queue are solar, wind and battery projects."
Jim Krane , the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies at Rice's Baker Institute for Public Policy, specializes in energy geopolitics, with a focus on oil-exporting countries and the challenges they face from energy subsidies, internal demand and climate change. He says renewable energy systems like wind and solar are far less exposed to supply chain risk than those that need constant supplies of fuels.
"Our research finds that the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy systems involves big decreases in materials, mining and in political risk," he says. "In other words, the energy transition is already insulating Americans from political risks to their energy supply. By reducing our exposure to fuel prices and availability — whether on gasoline, natural gas or coal — renewables are protecting us from chaos in energy markets."
Echoing Boyer, Krane says Texas has a head start on renewables thanks to its wind and solar capabilities, the latter of which will be further enhanced over the next few years thanks to upcoming projects.
"The state’s oil and gas expertise also translates well into other forms of clean energy systems, including hydrogen production and carbon management," he says. "The risks associated with these systems are closer to those of natural gas and coal, because they rely on constant fuel supply and disposal of waste carbon. But given Texas’ competitive advantage in engineering, infrastructure and ideal subsurface geology, these will undoubtedly be a big part of the future mix.”
For more information or to schedule an interview, contact Amy McCaig, senior media relations specialist at Rice, at 217-417-2901 or amym@rice.edu.