The United States government should accept greater strategic risk to “hold the line” against the revisionist measures of the Chinese government, according to new research from Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.
The analysis, authored by Gabriel Collins, Baker Botts Fellow in Energy and Environmental Regulatory Affairs at the Baker Institute, and Andrew Erickson, professor of strategy at the Naval War College, offers a “whole-of-government strategy” to push back against what they describe as China’s assault on the rules-based order that has underpinned regional growth and prosperity for nearly eight decades.
China’s revisionist actions include the “coercive envelopment of Hong Kong, more aggressive air and sea maneuvering against Taiwan, reclamation and militarization of subtidal features in the South China Sea, harassment of fishermen and oil and gas explorers from neighboring countries, and violent border incursions against India,” Collins said.
“Between now and 2035, imposing costs on strategically unacceptable Chinese actions while also pursuing behind-the-scenes ‘defense diplomacy’ with Beijing offers a sustainable path to influence PRC (People's Republic of China) behavior and position the Indo-Asia-Pacific for continued prosperity and growth under a rules-based regional system,” the authors wrote.
“Holding the line” requires frequent and sustained proactive enforcement actions, they said.
“These actions could include expedited Navy shipbuilding and munitions procurement, enhancement and hardening of regional bases, and working with allies on maritime enforcement operations against illegal fishing and other PRC-backed coercive envelopment activities,” Collins said.
Although American success is not guaranteed, fundamental societal and economic factors are more likely to favor Washington than Beijing over time, the authors argue.
“During the 2020s, Beijing may reach the zenith of its ability to mobilize resources for repression at home and abroad," they wrote. "2035 thus represents the likely closing of a ‘window of vulnerability’ with heightened risk of conflict between the PRC and regional neighbors, including — by extension through alliances and presence — the United States itself.”
“China faces tremendous demographic and financial liabilities right as the economic growth it needs to meet an expanding portfolio of obligations is slowing significantly,” they continued. “Even if not yet obvious, the constraining effects of an economic slowdown, political stasis and demographic decline will increasingly weigh on China’s comprehensive national power accretion. And regional strategic assessments have not yet ‘priced in’ such future scenarios.”
In addition, the personal political survival of Chinese president Xi Jinping will heavily influence his country's behavior, the authors said. “Washington must prepare the American electorate as well as allies and partners abroad for the likelihood that tensions will periodically ratchet up to uncomfortable levels,” they wrote.
Collins and Erickson have collaborated for over a decade. They have published more than 100 analyses of Chinese affairs on their research website, www.chinasignpost.com.