Persian Gulf security strained by receding US leadership, says Baker Institute expert
However, regional trends may lead to greater balance
HOUSTON -- (Feb. 28, 2020) – The drone strike that killed Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani has hardened attitudes toward the U.S. across the six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), according to a new research paper by an expert in the Center for the Middle East at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.
In the paper, “Rebalancing Regional Security in the Persian Gulf,” author Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, fellow for the Middle East at the Baker Institute, examines how shifts in security dynamics in the Gulf may evolve as the region responds to the perception of receding U.S. leadership, which had been building long before the Jan. 3 strike. He cites an anonymous Gulf diplomatic source who told the Christian Science Monitor: “Our most important ally, a world power who is here on the pretense of stabilizing the region, is destabilizing the region and taking all of us with them without a second thought.”
“As yet … there has been no credible alternative collective security arrangement to the U.S.-led structures … but the progressive internationalization of Gulf political economies and the gradual disengagement of U.S. interest, if not force, may change this over time,” Ulrichsen wrote.
The paper analyzes how the region's security structures developed, how perceptions of U.S. policy have created uncertainty and how the diversification of security relationships may eventually lead to greater balance in the Gulf.
“The trends that are gradually reshaping the international relations of the Persian Gulf did not begin with the Trump administration, but they may just have an outcome that is longer-lasting and more durable,” Ulrichsen wrote.
Ulrichsen’s field of research examines the changing position of Persian Gulf states in the global order as well as the emergence of longer-term, nonmilitary challenges to regional security.
To schedule an interview with Ulrichsen, contact Avery Franklin, media relations specialist at Rice, at averyrf@rice.edu or 713-348-6327. The Baker Institute has a radio and television studio available.
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Related materials:
Paper: www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/files/de9f09e6/cme-pub-persiangulf-022420.pdf
Ulrichsen bio: www.bakerinstitute.org/experts/kristian-coates-ulrichsen
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Founded in 1993, Rice University’s Baker Institute ranks as the No. 2 university-affiliated think tank in the world. As a premier nonpartisan think tank, the institute conducts research on domestic and foreign policy issues with the goal of bridging the gap between the theory and practice of public policy. The institute’s strong track record of achievement reflects the work of its endowed fellows, Rice University faculty scholars and staff, coupled with its outreach to the Rice student body through fellow-taught classes — including a public policy course — and student leadership and internship programs. Learn more about the institute at www.bakerinstitute.org or on the institute’s blog, http://blog.bakerinstitute.org.