In California elections, turnout improves locally during presidential election years

In California cities where mayoral elections coincide with the presidential elections, voter turnout is more than double compared with cities where mayoral elections are conducted off cycle, according to a new report from the Center for Local Elections in America Politics, part of Rice University’s Kinder Institute for Urban Research.

The report, “Mayoral Elections in California 1995-2014,” focuses on direct elections of California mayors, which occur in 168 of the state’s 482 cities. Mayoral election dates may coincide with presidential elections, congressional midterm elections or neither (known as off-cycle elections). The California dataset includes 1,035 mayoral elections from February 1995 to November 2014. In addition to systematically analyzing trends and patterns in mayoral elections in California, the report also considers how voter turnout will be affected by the 2015 state law requiring cities with low turnout to move their election dates so they coincide with state elections.

The report’s key finding revealed that between February 1995 and November 2014, mayoral elections held concurrently with presidential elections had the highest turnout (averaging 39.6 percent), while those held off cycle had the lowest turnout (averaging 17.5 percent). Those that coincided with midterm elections fell in the middle (averaging 28.5 percent).

“While the link between off-cycle elections and reduced voter turnout has been identified in previous studies, to date no research has examined this relationship over time or in quite as much detail,” said Melissa Marschall, director of the Center for Local Elections in American Politics, professor of political science at Rice and the report’s co-author. “Our analyses confirm that the deleterious effect of off-cycle elections goes back to the mid-1990s. However, we also find that contrary to conventional wisdom, voter participation in local elections is not necessarily on the decline. Rather, it has held relatively steady in elections held at both presidential and midterm cycles. On the other hand, for mayoral elections held off cycle, the trend has been negative over time, particularly after 2002.”

The report also includes the following findings:

• Off-cycle elections are disproportionately held in California’s largest cities (populations greater than 100,000), where they make up 45 percent of the mayoral contests. In the state’s smallest cities (populations below 20,000), off-cycle elections make up fewer than 14 percent of contests.
• Sixty-nine percent of all California municipalities holding off-cycle elections are located in Los Angeles County.
• The larger number of off-cycle elections among the state’s largest cities, combined with low average turnout in these elections (17 percent), means turnout is disproportionately suppressed in those cities.
• Over the last two decades, turnout for off-cycle mayoral elections in medium and large cities has declined from about 20 percent to about 10 percent.
• Cities that voluntarily switched to election dates that coincided with midterm or presidential elections saw turnout improve by an average of nearly 15 percentage points.

“The timing of elections matters,” said John Lappie, a postdoctoral research associate with the Center for Local Elections in American Politics and the report’s co-author. “Specifically, turnout is drastically lower in off-cycle mayoral elections. Last year, the California Assembly passed SB 415, which requires localities with low turnout rates in off-cycle elections to move them to a date concurrent with a statewide election. In all likelihood, turnout will increase dramatically in those cities that move their local elections on cycle.”

The researchers hope the new report will provide helpful analysis to policymakers seeking ways to improve political participation and strengthen local democracy in America.

The California study is the first of several reports on municipal elections to be released in 2016 by the Kinder Institute’s Center for Local Elections in American Politics. Forthcoming reports will examine trends in municipal contests in Indiana, Kentucky, Virginia, Louisiana, Minnesota, South Carolina, North Carolina and Washington.

A grant from the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation provided support for the research. The full report is available online at www.leap-elections.org and http://kinder.rice.edu.