Rice experts available to comment on Hillary Clinton’s Feb. 20 visit to Houston

Rice University
Office of Public Affairs / News and Media Relations

EXPERT ALERT

David Ruth
713-348-6327
david@rice.edu

Amy McCaig
713-348-6777
amym@rice.edu

Rice experts available to comment on Hillary Clinton’s Feb. 20 visit to Houston

HOUSTON – (Feb. 19, 2016) – As former Secretary of State and Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton prepares for a visit to Houston Feb. 20, Rice University political scientists Mark Jones and Robert Stein are available to comment about her prospects in the Lone Star State and the implications for candidates in the 29th Congressional District race as the March 1 primary looms.

Mark Jones (Photo credit: Rice University)

“The Texas primary represents the third-largest bounty of delegates to the Democratic National Convention all together and far and away the largest number in play on March 1,” said Jones, a professor of political science and fellow at Rice’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. While a dozen states and territories will be holding primaries and caucuses on that day, Texas represents the largest delegate trove, with 193 delegates up for grabs.

Jones said that for a Clinton campaign that wants to nail down the Democratic nomination as early in the primary season as possible, winning a large share of Lone Star State delegates is pivotal.

“Clinton’s and Sanders’ performance in the state will be widely covered in the national media,” Jones said. “Clinton is widely favored in the race, and most observers expect her to win. Therefore, the focus will be less on who wins and more on whether or not she outperforms expectations.”

Jones noted that Clinton has attempted to minimize Sanders’ success in Iowa and New Hampshire by arguing that once the battle moved to more diverse states such as Texas, she would win handily.

“Since Anglos are expected to account for only about one-half of Democratic primary voters, and since Clinton enjoys the support of a majority of Texas Democratic elites, a poor electoral showing (less than 60 percent of the vote) could very well be interpreted as a setback for Clinton,” Jones said. “This is because she would underperform expectations and is also because under the Democratic Party’s very proportional system of delegate allocation, a modest 10-15 percent advantage over Sanders in Texas will not provide Clinton with the number of delegates she needs to create a perception in March that her victory is ‘inevitable.'”

Robert Stein (Photo credit: Rice University)

Stein, the Lena Gohlman Fox Professor of Political Science at Rice and a fellow at the Baker Institute, said that Clinton’s visit might also have an important impact on the Democratic primary for the 29th Congressional District. The race is between Gene Green, who has held the seat since 1993, and Adrian Garcia, the former Harris County sheriff.

“Green represents one of three of the largest Hispanic districts in the U.S.,” Stein said. “Garcia is claiming that a Hispanic should represent the district and that Green is out of touch with the policy preferences of his constituents on guns, environment, health, same-sex marriage and education.”

Stein said many believe Garcia’s only chance of winning the nomination is to increase Hispanic voter turnout.

“This is something that Clinton’s candidacy and campaign could help,” Stein said.

Jones is a leading expert on Texas politics. He has been quoted nationally about Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz’s political career, which he has followed extensively since Cruz’s days as solicitor general of Texas to the launching of a long-shot U.S. Senate bid to today. To speak with Jones, contact him directly at 832-466-6535.

Stein is an expert on urban politics and public policy. He is regularly quoted about local politics and voting behavior. To speak with Stein, contact him directly at 713-857-9348.

Rice University has a VideoLink ReadyCam TV interview studio. ReadyCam is capable of transmitting broadcast-quality standard-definition and high-definition video directly to all news media organizations around the world 24/7.

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For more information, contact Amy McCaig, senior media relations specialist at Rice, at 713-348-6777 or amym@rice.edu.

This news release can be found online at http://news.rice.edu/.

Follow Rice News and Media Relations via Twitter @RiceUNews.

Jones in the news:

Bloomberg Politics: Surging Cruz is Big Oil’s new crush as donors cool to Bush

Fox News: Health, age could become campaign trail issue for 2016 candidates

La Voz: Comienza la votación anticipada y podría decidir las primarias en Texas antes del Súper Martes

Broadcast example: ‪Mark Jones talks voter ID on Fox 26

Stein in the news:

Houston Chronicle: House race pitting Garcia, Green tests power of Latino vote

Houston Public Media: Outgoing Houston Mayor Annise Parker leaves some unfinished business to her successor

Related Materials:

Mark Jones biography: http://bakerinstitute.org/experts/mark-p-jones/

Mark Jones Twitter handle: @MarkPJonesTX

Mark Jones headshot: http://news.rice.edu/files/2014/09/mark-jones.jpg

Robert Stein biography: https://politicalscience.rice.edu/Content.aspx?id=255

Robert Stein headshot: http://news.rice.edu/files/2016/02/R-1myh2m4.jpg

Photo credits: Rice University.

Located on a 300-acre forested campus in Houston, Rice University is consistently ranked among the nation’s top 20 universities by U.S. News & World Report. Rice has highly respected schools of Architecture, Business, Continuing Studies, Engineering, Humanities, Music, Natural Sciences and Social Sciences and is home to the Baker Institute for Public Policy. With 3,910 undergraduates and 2,809 graduate students, Rice’s undergraduate student-to-faculty ratio is 6-to-1. Its residential college system builds close-knit communities and lifelong friendships, just one reason why Rice is ranked No. 1 for best quality of life and for lots of race/class interaction by the Princeton Review. Rice is also rated as a best value among private universities by Kiplinger’s Personal Finance. To read “What they’re saying about Rice,” go to http://tinyurl.com/AboutRiceUniversity.