What awaits Cruz in New Hampshire? Texas political expert weighs in

Rice University
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David Ruth
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david@rice.edu

What awaits Cruz in New Hampshire? Texas political expert weighs in

HOUSTON — (Feb. 3, 2016) – With U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, coming off a win in the Iowa caucuses, what does the Feb. 9 New Hampshire primary have in store for his quest for the White House? Texas political expert Mark Jones, a professor of political science at Rice University and fellow at Rice’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, is available to comment on how Cruz and the other candidates in the crowded Republican field might fare in New Hampshire and the overall 2016 presidential race.

Mark Jones photo courtesy Rice University

“Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio both left Iowa with the wind at their backs as they traveled to New Hampshire to barnstorm in preparation for the Feb. 9 primary,” Jones said. “Neither expects to eclipse Donald Trump, whose lead in the New Hampshire polls looks at the present time to be unassailable.”

Jones said the real battle Feb. 9 will be for second and third place, with both Cruz and Rubio attempting to create as much distance between themselves and the other candidates who remain in the hunt for the GOP nomination.

“A strong second-place finish by Rubio with a considerable gap between him and the three other candidates competing for the establishment mantle (Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and John Kasich) would represent a tremendous boost for Rubio, since it could very well result in an establishment rally behind his candidacy as well as the withdrawal of Christie and Kasich from the race,” Jones said. “And while (in contrast to Christie and Kasich) Bush has a well-stocked campaign war chest, an even more well-endowed super PAC and a robust national organization, a dismal performance on Feb. 9 could ratchet up the rising pressure on Bush to withdraw to clear the way for Rubio.”

Jones said the decisions made by New Hampshire voters will have a major impact on the options Texans have at the polls when early voting begins Feb. 16, with it quite possible that only four or five candidates (Cruz, Rubio, Trump, Bush and perhaps Carson) will remain standing.

“With his victory in Iowa cementing his status as a front-runner and expectations for a strong performance in New Hampshire low, Cruz will only need a second- or third-place finish and a share of the vote somewhere in the teens to keep his campaign fully on track as he pivots to the crucial South Carolina primary,” Jones said. “In the Palmetto State, his goal will be to defeat Donald Trump and in doing so foreshadow what may occur on March 1 in the ‘SEC Primary,’ when Southern states with Cruz-friendly electorates such as Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and, of course, Texas will dominate media coverage on a day when approximately one out of every four delegates to the Republican National Convention will be chosen.”

Jones is a leading expert on Texas politics. He has been quoted nationally about Cruz’s political career, which he has followed extensively since Cruz’s days as solicitor general of Texas to the launching of a long-shot U.S. Senate bid to today. To speak with Jones, contact him directly at 832-466-6535.

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Related materials:

Mark Jones biography: http://bakerinstitute.org/experts/mark-p-jones/

Photo link: https://news2.rice.edu/files/2014/09/mark-jones.jpg

Mark Jones photo courtesy Rice University

Photo credit: Rice University.

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