Expert Alert: Super Tuesday and Texas: Rice political scientist weighs in

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David Ruth
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Amy McCaig
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Super Tuesday and Texas: Rice political scientist weighs in

HOUSTON — (Feb. 26, 2016) – With 12 states and one U.S. territory voting March 1, the primary election represents the single biggest day — known as Super Tuesday — for presidential candidates to win delegates. Rice political scientist Mark Jones is available to comment on the crucial Texas primary and what it means for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and the rest of the 2016 candidates.

Mark Jones photo courtesy Rice University

Jones, who is a professor of political science and fellow at Rice’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, said that Super Tuesday – and the Texas primary in particular – is make-or-break for Cruz, who had disappointing results in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

“Cruz is counting on the support of social and tea party conservatives to keep his presidential dreams alive,” Jones said.

Jones noted that the original Cruz road map to the GOP nomination included victory laps across the South March 1, an outcome that appears increasingly unlikely with less than a week to go before Super Tuesday.

“The Republican nomination contest remains a three-horse race, and Cruz is one of those three stallions,” Jones said. “And while U.S Sen. Marco Rubio has done well, he remains neck-and-neck with Cruz. Both are trailing Donald Trump, but both also have strong potential to defeat Trump if they can reduce the contest to a two-horse race.”

Jones said that in the short term, Texas is critical for Cruz.

“A Cruz loss in the Lone Star State is very unlikely, but were he to lose, his campaign would be severely wounded, perhaps mortally so,” Jones said. “In reality though, what the Cruz campaign needs now more than anything is an image and morale-boosting signature victory (more than 50 percent of the vote) in Texas, one that signals to a national audience that his presidential bid is alive and well, and at the same time racks up a substantial number of coveted convention delegates in a state with more delegates to the Republican National Convention than Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada combined.”

Jones said that in some elections, percentages defining a signature victory from a nonsignature victory can be chance, but in Texas there is no doubt that crossing the 50 percent threshold is a signature victory.

“If Cruz can cross the 50 percent threshold statewide, he would garner all 44 statewide delegates (plus, indirectly, three unelected delegates), and without question would also take all three delegates in a majority of the state’s 36 congressional districts (where a candidate who receives more than 50 percent of the vote is allocated all three delegates),” Jones said. “However, if Cruz does not win more than 50 percent statewide, he will have to share the statewide delegates with Trump and quite possibly with Rubio, so long as the Florida senator wins more than 20 percent of the vote. At the congressional-district level, if Cruz does not win more than 50 percent, but finishes first, he would receive two delegates and the second-place finisher would receive one.”

Jones said that at present, Cruz looks to be well-positioned for a victory in Texas but not a landslide signature victory.

“The nonsignature win would allow his campaign to continue on, but not provide him with the momentum and the delegate cushion he would like to have coming out of Super Tuesday,” Jones said.

Jones noted that Super Tuesday will also be crucial for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Texas has the third-largest bounty of delegates to the Democratic National Convention overall and the largest in play on that day.

“Drawing on her substantial support in the African-American and Latino communities, Clinton will be victorious in Texas on Tuesday,” Jones said. “Texas will not be the final nail in Sanders’ coffin, but it will get the process starting by substantially adding to Clinton’s count.”

Jones is a leading expert on Texas politics. He has been quoted nationally about Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz’s political career, which he has followed extensively since Cruz’s days as solicitor general of Texas to the launching of a long-shot U.S. Senate bid to today. To speak with Jones, contact him directly at 832-466-6535.

Rice University has a VideoLink ReadyCam TV interview studio. ReadyCam is capable of transmitting broadcast-quality standard-definition and high-definition video directly to all news media organizations around the world 24/7.

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Jones in the news:

Bloomberg Politics: Surging Cruz is Big Oil’s new crush as donors cool to Bush
Fox News: Health, age could become campaign trail issue for 2016 candidates
San Antonio Express-News: Texas could be turning point for Trump, Cruz
Houston Chronicle: Trump doesn’t have to win Texas to deliver a blow to Cruz
La Voz: Comienza la votación anticipada y podría decidir las primarias en Texas antes del Súper Martes
Broadcast example: ‪Mark Jones talks voter ID on Fox 26

Related materials:

Mark Jones biography: http://bakerinstitute.org/experts/mark-p-jones/

Mark Jones Twitter handle: @MarkPJonesTX

Mark Jones headshot: http://news.rice.edu/files/2014/09/mark-jones.jpg

Photo credit: Rice University.

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