Rice Expert Alert: How will Cruz, Trump and other candidates fare in Iowa? Texas political expert weighs in

Rice University
Office of Public Affairs / News & Media Relations

EXPERT ALERT

David Ruth
713-348-6327
david@rice.edu

Amy McCaig
713-348-6777
amym@rice.edu

How will Cruz, Trump and other candidates fare in Iowa? Texas political expert weighs in

HOUSTON — (Jan. 29, 2016) – As U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, prepares for the final days leading up to the Iowa caucuses, what does the future have in store for his road to the White House? Texas political expert Mark Jones, a professor of political science at Rice University and fellow at Rice’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, is available to comment on how the various candidates in the crowded Republican field might fare in the 2016 presidential race.

Jones calls the Iowa caucus “crucial” for the momentum of Cruz’s presidential bid.

“A win in Iowa will cement Cruz’s current status as one of the two front-runners for the GOP presidential nomination,” Jones said. A defeat will remove a key, though not indispensable, stepping stone on Cruz’s planned pathway to victory.”

Jones noted that the caucus also represents Donald Trump’s first test among actual voters, as opposed to public opinion survey respondents.

“With Trump enjoying a double-digit lead in the New Hampshire and South Carolina polls, an Iowa victory holds the potential to vault Trump into clear front-runner status,” Jones said. “In contrast, if Trump performs significantly below his poll numbers and loses, he would be forced to acknowledge that, at least in Iowa, he was a ‘loser.’ This would raise some doubt about the extent to which his poll numbers will translate into votes in upcoming contests, with the caveat that New Hampshire and South Carolina, unlike Iowa, employ primaries where voting requires much less effort than under Iowa’s caucus system.”

Jones noted that also of importance in Iowa is the ability of U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., to establish himself as the clear third-place candidate – behind Cruz and Trump, but with a notable gap between him and the other Republican candidates.

On the Democratic side, Jones said that the Clinton campaign expects to lose in New Hampshire to Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., who represents the neighboring state.

“If Clinton is going to blunt Sanders’ momentum as the primary campaign begins to accelerate, her best opportunity to do so is on Monday,” Jones said.

Jones is a leading expert on Texas politics. He has been quoted nationally about Cruz’s political career, which he has followed extensively since Cruz’s days as solicitor general of Texas to the launching of a long-shot U.S. Senate bid to today. To speak with Jones, contact him directly at 832-466-6535.

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Related materials:

Mark Jones biography: http://bakerinstitute.org/experts/mark-p-jones/

Photo link: https://news2.rice.edu/files/2015/04/jones.jpg

Photo credit: Rice University.

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