Baker Institute scholars offer predictions on aftermath of ‘El Chapo’ escape

EXPERT ALERT

Jeff Falk
713-348-6775
jfalk@rice.edu  

Baker Institute scholars offer predictions on aftermath of ‘El Chapo’ escape

HOUSTON – (July 15, 2015) – The escape of Joaquin Guzman Loera — known as “El Chapo,” the most powerful drug trafficker in Mexico — was a humiliating setback for the administration of Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, according to experts at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.

Credit: thinkstockphotos.com/Rice University

Nathan Jones, a nonresident scholar in drug policy and Mexico studies, said Guzman’s escape will force a government shift on extradition, embolden Mexico’s marines and may be a source for internal rifts within the Sinaloa Federation, an international drug trafficking, money-laundering and organized crime syndicate. However, the federation’s common enemies will likely keep its members unified, he said. Jones, an assistant professor at Sam Houston State University, authored a Baker Institute blog in which he offers predictions on the aftermath escape and is available to discuss them with the media.

Jones has two particular predictions: First, the Mexican government will now be forced, either through legislation or a publicly stated policy shift, to create a form of rapid extradition. “Extradition to the United States has long been an important tool of Latin American governments fighting serious drug-trafficking organizations,” Jones said. “The ability of these groups to continue to run operations from behind bars in Mexico and Colombia is a significant problem that can be mitigated through extradition. Guzman’s first escape (in 2001) was timed around a Mexican Supreme Court decision on the ability to extradite Mexican citizens who did not also have U.S. citizenship.”

Second, Mexico’s marines will not bring Guzman to the judicial system again. “Much like Pablo Escobar, Guzman has a demonstrated capacity to bribe or intimidate the judicial and penal system,” Jones said. “Mexico’s government cannot credibly claim to be able to incarcerate Guzman. While Mexico’s navy will not state it as policy, it will likely make sure that Guzman dies in a kill/capture during a ‘firefight.’ U.S. law enforcement agencies will likely close ranks with the marines in terms of continued cooperation and the provision of signal intelligence to capture Guzman.”

Gary Hale, a nonresident fellow in drug policy and Mexico Studies, said the Mexican government does not appear overly surprised about the escape and the U.S. government is speaking softly about the enormous insult that Guzman’s supposedly undiscovered tunnel represents. From 2000 to 2010, Hale was chief of intelligence in the Houston Field Division of the Drug Enforcement Administration.

“U.S.-Mexico security relations, particularly at the operational level, will be further degraded by Guzman’s escape,” Hale wrote in a Baker Institute blog. “Since taking office, the Peña Nieto administration has largely frozen the Merida Initiative (a partnership between the U.S. and Mexico to fight organized crime and associated violence), bringing U.S.-Mexico public safety assistance and the reforms brought by such cooperation to a near halt. The end result is apparent and clearly demonstrates that the government of Mexico has little interest in judicial reform or reduction of violence, both issues that are critical to the bilateral relationship and to the overall safety of Mexico’s people.”

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For more information or to schedule an interview with Jones or Hale, contact Jeff Falk, associate director of national media relations at Rice, at jfalk@rice.edu or 713-348-6775.

Related materials:

Jones blog: http://blog.chron.com/bakerblog/2015/07/el-chapo-escape-predictions

Hale blog: http://blog.chron.com/bakerblog/2015/07/a-tunnel-rat-burrows-out-of-a-mexican-maximum-security-prison

Jones bio: http://bakerinstitute.org/experts/nathan-p-jones

Jones on Twitter: http://twitter.com/natejudejones @natejudejones

Hale bio: http://bakerinstitute.org/experts/gary-j-hale

Follow Rice News and Media Relations via Twitter @RiceUNews.

Founded in 1993, Rice University’s Baker Institute ranks among the top 10 university-affiliated think tanks in the world. As a premier nonpartisan think tank, the institute conducts research on domestic and foreign policy issues with the goal of bridging the gap between the theory and practice of public policy. The institute’s strong track record of achievement reflects the work of its endowed fellows, Rice University faculty scholars and staff, coupled with its outreach to the Rice student body through fellow-taught classes — including a public policy course — and student leadership and internship programs. Learn more about the institute at www.bakerinstitute.org or on the institute’s blog, http://blogs.chron.com/bakerblog.