Political expert Mark Jones available to discuss Texas runoff for US Senate seat
HOUSTON – (July 24, 2012) – Rice University political scientist Mark Jones is available to discuss the July 31 U.S. Senate runoff between former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst.
“With a little over a week until election day, the GOP Senate primary remains a very competitive race, with both Cruz and Dewhurst having a realistic chance of victory,” Jones said. “Both sides have invested heavily in their TV air-war campaigns as well as their ground games as they work to get their supporters to vote absentee, vote early and turn out on election day.”
Jones said the strong get-out-the-vote and television advertising efforts should result in between 750,000 and a million voters participating in the GOP primary, and the higher turnout means better odds for a Dewhurst victory.
“To reverse the advantage that Dewhurst enjoyed May 29, Cruz will need to mobilize his supporters to turn out at a much higher rate than those of Dewhurst while simultaneously convincing a nontrivial number of those who cast a vote for Dewhurst in May to ‘Choose Cruz’ in July,” Jones said.
According to Jones, Cruz is running a very strong campaign against Dewhurst, who has the support of a large share of the state Republican establishment.
“A Cruz victory would send shock waves through Texas Republican politics and embolden movement conservatives throughout the state to ratchet up their challenges to the GOP establishment and its principal financial backers in the 2014 Republican primaries,” Jones said. “It would also provide a model for future campaigns by movement conservative candidates against establishment conservative candidates, with the key to victory being the combination of strong grassroots support in state and strong financial support from out of state.”
Jones, who is the chair of political science at Rice and a fellow at Rice’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, is a leading expert on Texas politics and has been quoted nationally about the Texas senate race. He has authored reports on the partisanship of Texas state senators and representatives, and he wrote guest columns about the 2012 GOP primary races and the political affiliation of Dewhurst.
To speak with Jones, contact him directly at 832-466-6535.
This news release can be found online at http://news.rice.edu/2012/07/24/political-expert-mark-jones-available-to-discuss-texas-runoff-for-us-senate-seat/.
Mark Jones bio: http://www.bakerinstitute.org/personnel/fellows-scholars/mjones
Local media (broadcast and print/online):
Texas Senate race down to ‘style’ (July 16, 2012 – KRIV TV): http://www.myfoxhouston.com/story/19039852/2012/07/16/texas-senate-race-down-to-style
Guest Column: Republican Candidates, Side by Side (May 7, 2012 – The Texas Tribune): http://www.texastribune.org/texas-politics/2012-legislative-election/guest-column-republican-candidates-side-side
Guest Column: How Conservative is David Dewhurst? (March 28, 2012 – The Texas Tribune): http://www.texastribune.org/texas-legislature/texas-legislature/guest-column-how-conservative-david-dewhurst
Guest Column: How Partisan Are Texas State Senators? (February 28, 2012 – The Texas Tribune): http://www.texastribune.org/texas-legislature/texas-legislature/guest-columnist-how-partisan-are-texas-state-senat
Guest Column: How Partisan are Texas House Members? (July 8, 2011 – The Texas Tribune): http://www.texastribune.org/texas-legislature/texas-legislature/guest-column-how-partisan-are-texas-house-members
National media placements (print/online):
Texas Race For Senate Is Headed For Runoff (May 30, 2012 – Wall Street Journal):
Texas Voters Set Dewhurst, Cruz Republican Senate Runoff (May 30, 2012 – Bloomberg): http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-30/texas-voters-set-dewhurst-cruz-republican-senate-runoff.html
Senate race in Texas headed for runoff (May 30, 2012 – Chicago Tribune): http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-05-30/news/sns-rt-us-usa-campaign-texas-senatebre84o1cs-20120525_1_election-runoff-texas-senate-senate-race
Tea Party takes on establishment Republican in Texas Senate race (May 25, 2012 – Reuters): http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/25/us-usa-campaign-texas-senate-idUSBRE84O1CS20120525
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